Morning Briefing FM-Radio | February 17, 2025

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The financial markets are constantly in flux, and recent developments highlight the varying sentiments across different regions. As of Friday, the S&P 500 index closed almost unchanged, lingering at record highs, while the Nasdaq Composite extended its winning streak. Tech giant NVIDIA saw its stock rise by an impressive 2.6%. However, not all stocks in the tech sector shared this momentum, as SoundHound AI, which NVIDIA recently sold off, plummeted by 28%, and Arm Holdings saw a decrease of over 3%. In contrast, Intel experienced remarkable growth of nearly 24% over the week, marking the largest weekly gain since 2000. Amid optimistic forecasts, Airbnb also surged by more than 14%.

Turning our gaze to Chinese stocks, there was a noteworthy uptick in the China concept index, which rose over 2% this week and more than 7% overall. Alibaba, a significant player in this sector, saw its shares gain over 4%, contributing to a staggering 20% increase for the week. Also capturing attention was the impressive 80% rise in shares of WeRide, a new favorite of NVIDIA. In Europe, while the pan-European stock index slipped slightly from its record highs, it managed to secure its eighth consecutive week of gains, marking one of the longest weekly winning streaks in almost a year.

Key macroeconomic data from the U.S. presented positive signs for potential interest rate cuts. Retail sales data indicated a surprising decline of 0.9% in January, largely impacted by extreme weather and wildfires. This came as a concern for the economy, as the market responded by seeing U.S. Treasury yields tumble to their lowest levels in a week. The dollar index hastened its fall to a two-month low, while the offshore yuan surged by 400 points during trading, approaching 7.25 against the U.S. dollar, reaching its highest point in nearly three weeks.

Gold prices flickered, dropping nearly 2% at one point but still maintained a seven-week streak of overall gains. In commodity markets, oil underwent volatility, initially climbing over 1% before reverting to a decline, marking its third consecutive drop to a weekly low. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil has now fallen for four straight weeks, reflecting ongoing pressures within the oil market.

Meanwhile, during the Asian trading session, the AH stocks rebounded strongly towards the closing stages, with the ChiNext index climbing almost 2% and the Hang Seng index witnessing a remarkable 5% increase. Nevertheless, this surge was contrasted by a downturn in government bond futures.

In a significant turn of events, DeepSeek highlighted a fascinating dynamic in global investment flows: over the past month, hedge funds funneled an astonishing $1.3 trillion into Chinese stocks, while the Indian market saw an outflow of $720 billion. Analysts suggest that this investment might signify a tactical pivot favoring Chinese equities, especially given the backdrop of capital flight from India.

Despite these advancements, challenges persist, particularly evident in the U.S. retail sector. The unexpected January decline of 0.9% in retail sales was a stark contrast to the expected drop of just 0.2%, representing the most significant month-over-month decline since March 2023. This retreat underscores the mounting pressures on American consumers, who are grappling with persistent inflation and rising borrowing costs, necessitating increased reliance on credit facilities for purchasing.

The investment landscape is certainly intriguing, as noted in Berkshire Hathaway's recent quarterly report. Warren Buffett's company did not divest from Apple but instead reinforced its stake in Occidental Petroleum, reduced positions in banking stocks, and increased investments in the restaurant sector. Such strategic betting appears to reflect a cautious yet opportunistic approach amidst ongoing market volatility.

Meanwhile, NVIDIA's latest quarterly disclosures revealed its continued holdings in WeRide, representing total shares valued over $24.67 million. Following this news, WeRide's American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) skyrocketed, with intraday gains exceeding 146%, triggering a trading halt due to excessive volatility. Conversely, other NVIDIA-related stocks like Serve Robotics and SoundHound AI suffered steep declines of 43% and 28%, respectively, post-NVIDIA's liquidation of their holdings.

In terms of technological aspirations, Meta is making significant strides towards developing humanoid robots, reportedly through its Reality Labs. Under the leadership of Marc Whitten, the new team aims to recruit around 100 engineers this year, focusing on creating AI-driven robotic systems for domestic assistance. This initiative signals Meta's commitment to expanding its technological frontier, similar to how Google revolutionized mobile systems with Android.

In semiconductor news, key players TSMC and Broadcom are reportedly eyeing parts of Intel's operations. TSMC has been exploring control over Intel's chip factories, while Broadcom is assessing opportunities to acquire Intel's chip design and marketing divisions as it seeks potential partners for manufacturing. This movement could reshape the competitive landscape of the semiconductor industry significantly.

Across the Atlantic, the Eurozone's surprising growth of 0.1% in economic output for Q4 2024, despite Germany and France entering a phase of contraction, has sparked discussions about the region's recovery trajectory. The European Central Bank remains cautious, projecting lingering challenges while acknowledging the potential for a rebound in subsequent quarters.

Finally, the business of cocoa production is witnessing a dire situation as inventories have plummeted to historical lows due to extreme weather and pest infestations threatening harvests in Ivory Coast and Ghana— the world's largest producers. Chocolate manufacturers are now facing increased raw material costs, with chocolate prices rising by approximately 20% for Valentine's Day in the U.S. This escalation is indicative of broader supply chain disruptions that could affect consumer behavior moving forward.

In conclusion, these market movements and macroeconomic developments present a complex yet promising picture for investors and consumers alike. As the global landscape shifts with emerging technologies, changing consumer habits, and significant geopolitical dynamics, stakeholders must navigate a landscape rife with both opportunities and challenges.

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